Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Are Tied on Polymarket for the Next US President
In the past month, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential contest have dropped by 13 percentage points.
On Polymarket, wagerers are now tying Donald Trump and Kamala Harris for the same odds of winning the presidency.
Memecoins with a Trump theme have also dropped dramatically in the past month.
In the contest for the White House, former President Donald Trump had a sizable advantage over the Democrats at the start of the election cycle. That lead is now gone, as Kamala Harris has emerged as the party’s nominee in lieu of President Joe Biden.
In the past month, Harris’s chances of winning the presidency have risen by 34 percentage points, first as a potential replacement for Biden in the final days of his campaign and second as an opponent to Trump in politics. Trump’s chances of winning the presidency have decreased by 13 percentage points.
Trump’s support has declined from a peak of 72% in the days following the first presidential debate between him and Biden, which was a complete bust for the Democrats, with Biden later admitting he “screwed up.”
Harris’s rise indicates that Polymarket and polling are now in line. Harris led Trump by one percentage point in a CBS News survey taken between July 30 and August 2. Taking into account the poll’s 2.1 percentage point margin of error, the results indicate a tie. At about the same time, polling aggregator 538 declared the race a statistical tie. Since then, Harris has gained a slight advantage in the polls.
In the meanwhile, compared to polls or prediction markets, the drop in Trump-themed PoliFi tokens over the past month has been more substantial.
According to CoinGecko data, MAGA, the original Trump coin, has decreased by over 38% in the past month, while Tremp, based in Solana, has decreased by 40%.
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